ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY, TAX
AGGRESSIVENESS AND THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE CREDIT MARKET IN PUBLIC
COMPANIES LISTED IN [B]³
Name: KARINA BORGES DE ALMEIDA
Publication date: 21/08/2023
Examining board:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| RAFAEL DE LACERDA MOREIRA | Advisor |
Summary: This study aims to analyze the behavior of Brazilian public non-financial companies listed on
[B]³ regarding tax aggressiveness in conditions of political-economic uncertainty and under the
influence of the credit market. As measures of political-economic uncertainty, two indices are
used at the Brazilian level: the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and the Economic
Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-BR). To measure tax aggressiveness, the analyzes used are the
Effective Tax Rate (ETR), the Book-Tax Differences (BTD) and the Tax Burden on Added
Value (CTRIB-DVA). As alternative proxies to provide robustness to the study, variations of
the BTD (Permanent BTD) and the ETR (Differential ETR) are used. For the credit market, the
metric used will be the “Quarterly Survey of Credit Conditions in Brazil” indicator, available
in the BACEN Time Series Management System. This study fills a gap in the national literature
by analyzing the supply of credit in a scenario of political-economic uncertainty. The sample is
made up of 4,749 observations between the period 2011-2022. The analysis consists of
descriptive, improved statistics and regressions using the ordinary least squares method. The
results of the regressions indicate, in general, that the companies that make up the sample are
more tax aggressive when there is an increase in political-economic uncertainty and that the
supply of credit is moderate in this relationship. These comments are relevant for investors to
get to know the companies they are investing in, for inspectors and government agents to
understand the behavior regarding the tax aggressiveness of companies in the face of increased
political-economic uncertainty and its implications in the credit market and thus better define
how public policy.
